Larry Summers

After the Brexit vote, the United Kingdom will fall into at least a mild recession (inferred window: within about two years, by mid-2018).

“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”

Said on

27 June 2016 · NPR Here & Now interview, three days after the June 2016 Brexit referendum

Source

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers On What 'Brexit' Means For The U.S. · WBUR Here & Now (via WVXU)

Should come true

2018

How sure they sounded

more likely than not, I would say

Categories

EconomyPolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · A UK recession would have hit a major national economy.

Outcome

Inaccurate

The UK had no recession after the vote. ONS data show positive quarterly GDP growth through 2016, 2017 and 2018, with no two consecutive quarters of contraction until the 2020 pandemic, so even a mild recession did not occur in the inferred two-year window.

Evidence:

• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/qna
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna