Tom Lee

The S&P 500 will suffer a roughly 10% pullback in the first half of 2021, starting in February, March or April.

“I think we have a 10% kind of pullback, and I think that's a pause that refreshes,”

Said on

17 December 2020 · CNBC interview on Fundstrat's 2021 outlook; in the same interview he said "I think it's going to start either February, March or April" and lasts one or two months

Source

Tom Lee sees a 10% correction coming but says 2021 will still be a boom year · CNBC

Should come true

Jun 2021

How sure they sounded

I think

Categories

Markets

Importance

2 of 5 · A call on a US stock market correction; it matters mainly to equity investors.

Outcome

Inaccurate

The S&P 500 had no 10% correction at any point in 2021. Its pullbacks were about 4-5% (the February-March dip was about 4%), so the predicted ~10% spring pullback did not happen.

Evidence:

• https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/what-s-next-for-the-s-p-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction
• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-29/deeper-dives-will-test-investors-nerves-in-2022-truist-says