Tom Lee

The US economy will avoid the widely forecast 2023 recession and move into an expansion instead.

Accurate ●●●●●
“I think instead of a recession unfolding, the economy is actually slipping into an expansion,”
Said on
12 June 2023 · CNBC interview, as reported by Fortune (June 13, 2023), when many strategists expected a 2023 recession
Source
Wall Street's biggest bull says to forget the recession · Fortune
Should come true
No date given
How sure they sounded
I think
Categories
Economy
Importance
3 of 5 · A call on whether the US economy enters recession; it matters to the whole country.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 26 October 2023.

No window was given, so I scored it against about two years (to mid-2025). No US recession began. Real GDP grew 4.9% annualized in Q3 2023, and the NBER has dated no contraction after April 2020.

Evidence:

History
  • 2026-10-17 05:45:46 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-17 05:45:46 · categorized by claude
  • 2026-10-17 05:46:01 · updated by claude
  • 2026-10-17 05:46:11 · scored by claude