Paul Krugman

Once the pandemic is brought under control in 2021, the US economy will rebound strongly ("come roaring back").

“And it’s also a good bet that when we do, the economy will come roaring back.”

Said on

20 November 2020 · New York Times column "Making the Most of the Coming Biden Boom", reprinted in The Salt Lake Tribune; the previous sentence says the pandemic will probably be under control "at some point next year"

Source

Paul Krugman: Making the most of the coming Biden boom · The Salt Lake Tribune (New York Times syndication)

Should come true

2021

How sure they sounded

a good bet

Categories

EconomyHealth

Importance

3 of 5 · A forecast of the US economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2021.

BEA's advance estimate put US real GDP growth for 2021 at 5.7 percent (later revised up), the fastest annual growth since 1984, as vaccines rolled out. Inflation also surged, which Krugman did not foresee, but the "roaring back" growth he predicted happened in 2021.

Evidence:

• https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate