Joe Biden

China will not attempt to invade Taiwan in the near term (about two years after November 2022).

“And I do not think there's any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.”

Said on

14 November 2022 · News conference in Bali after meeting Xi Jinping at the G20. "Imminent" given no date; window inferred as about 2 years.

Source

The President's News Conference in Bali, Indonesia · The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara)

Should come true

by 2024

How sure they sounded

I do not think

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger a US-China war with global consequences.

Outcome

Accurate

The inferred window ran about 2 years, to November 2024. China made no attempt to invade Taiwan in that time and had not done so by October 2026. It did escalate pressure with large military exercises such as Joint Sword-2024A, but these stopped short of an invasion.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Sword-2024A
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-strait_relations