Bill Gates

The next event to kill over 10 million people within a few decades of 2015 will most likely be a highly infectious virus, not a war.

“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”

Said on

18 March 2015 · TED2015 talk "The next outbreak? We're not ready", Vancouver (March 2015). "Next few decades" interpreted as ~3 decades.

Source

Bill Gates TED Talk Transcript from 2015: Warns of Pandemics, Epidemics · Rev

Should come true

2040s

How sure they sounded

"most likely"

Categories

Health

Importance

5 of 5 · Concerns events killing tens of millions of people worldwide.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2021.

The next event to kill over 10 million people was a highly infectious virus, not a war: WHO estimates 14.9 million excess deaths from COVID-19 in 2020-2021 (official reported deaths were lower, about 7 million by 2023). The window to 2045 is still open, but the forecast event has already happened, so it is scored now.

Evidence:

• https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-COVID-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021
• https://news.un.org/en/node/1117582