US stocks will return far less over the 17 years from 1999 than the ~19% a year of 1981-1998, most probably about 6% a year nominal for investors in aggregate.

Accurate ●●●●●

“I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like–anything like–they’ve performed in the past 17. If I had to pick the most probable return, from appreciation and dividends combined, that investors in aggregate–repeat, aggregate–would earn in a world of constant interest rates, 2% inflation, and those ever hurtful frictional costs, it would be 6%.”

Said on: 22 November 1999 · Fortune article "Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market" (with Carol Loomis), distilled from his July 1999 Sun Valley and September 1999 talks and reviewed by Buffett
Source: Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market · Fortune
Should come true: 2016
How sure they sounded: I think it's very hard...; most probable return
Categories: Markets
Importance: 3 of 5 · Long-run return call for the US stock market at the peak of the dot-com bubble

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2016.

From late 1999 to end-2016 the S&P 500 returned roughly 4-5% a year including dividends (Dow ~11,500 to ~19,800 plus dividends), nothing like the ~19% a year of 1981-1998 and close to his 6% gross / ~4% real estimate. Fortune's follow-up judged he was on the right side of the call.

Evidence:

History

2026-10-17 06:27:34 · created by claude
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