Allan Lichtman

George W. Bush will win the national popular vote in the 2004 US presidential election.

“Based on the consequential events of the past four years, President Bush is the predicted winner of the popular vote for 2004, barring a shocking reversal of fortune at home and abroad.”

Said on

1 October 2004 · Lichtman's article "The Verdict of the Keys" in Social Education vol. 68 no. 6 (Oct. 2004), pp. 392-394

Source

The Verdict of the Keys · Social Education (NCSS)

Should come true

2 Nov 2004

How sure they sounded

is the predicted winner ... barring a shocking reversal of fortune

Categories

Elections

Importance

4 of 5 · US presidential election outcome has major global consequences.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 2 November 2004.

George W. Bush won the 2004 national popular vote (about 50.7% to John Kerry's 48.3%) and the Electoral College (286-251), matching the forecast.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election