Barack Obama

A US invasion of Iraq, even if militarily successful, will require a lengthy and costly US occupation and will strengthen al-Qaida recruitment.

“I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaida.”

Said on

2 October 2002 · Speech against the Iraq war at an anti-war rally in Chicago, as an Illinois state senator

Source

Transcript: Obama's Speech Against The Iraq War · NPR

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

I know that ... will

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · The Iraq war reshaped the Middle East and US foreign policy for two decades.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 18 December 2011.

After the 2003 invasion toppled Saddam quickly, US forces occupied Iraq until December 2011 at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, and al-Qaeda in Iraq grew into a major insurgent force (later ISIS). Both parts of the forecast came true.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda_in_Iraq