Thomas Friedman

Egypt's Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood will end up in a major fight with each other over religious authority.

“And I think we're going to see eventually the mother of all church fights between the Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood over who, you know, has basically the real monopoly of religion.”

Said on

13 December 2011 · Brookings Institution, Eighth Annual Raymond Aron Lecture "Interpreting the Arab Spring" (discussant), transcript

Source

Interpreting the Arab Spring: Eighth Annual Raymond Aron Lecture (transcript) · Brookings Institution

Should come true

by 2013

How sure they sounded

I think we're going to see eventually

Categories

PoliticsGeopolitics

Importance

2 of 5 · Rivalry between Egypt's two main Islamist movements shaped its post-revolution politics.

Outcome

Partly right Happened 3 July 2013.

Inferred window ~2 years. A sharp Salafist-Brotherhood split did come: the Nour party fell out with Morsi's government in 2012-13 and on July 3, 2013 endorsed the military roadmap that ousted him. But the fight was mainly over political power and alliances rather than "the real monopoly of religion", and the decisive struggle was between the army and the Brotherhood, so it is scored partial as the more cautious call.

Evidence:

• https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/7/7/egypts-islamist-divide
• https://app.al-monitor.com/originals/2013/07/nour-party-perilous-gamble-backing-morsi-ouster.html