Jeremy Grantham

Developed-world real GDP growth will average only about 2% (perhaps 2.25%) a year over the seven years to 2016.

“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2 percent real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25 percent) down from the 3.5 percent to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.”

Said on

6 May 2009 · GMO quarterly letter (Q1 2009), quoted by the Christian Science Monitor

Source

Which perma-bear's now bullish? (Hint: Grantham.) · Christian Science Monitor

Should come true

2016

How sure they sounded

I expect

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Long-run growth rate of the rich economies after the financial crisis.

Outcome

Accurate

World Bank data for high-income countries show real GDP growth averaging roughly 2% a year over 2010-2016 (about 1.3-2.9% each year), in line with "about 2 percent" and well below the 3.5% he contrasted it with.

Evidence:

• https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=XD