Jeremy Grantham

The S&P 500 will not set a new inflation-adjusted high (above its 2000 peak) for decades after 2009.

“To be honest, I believe that most of you readers are likely to be grandparents before you see a new inflation-adjusted high on the S&P.”

Said on

6 May 2009 · GMO quarterly letter (Q1 2009), quoted by the Christian Science Monitor

Source

Which perma-bear's now bullish? (Hint: Grantham.) · Christian Science Monitor

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

I believe ... likely

Categories

Markets

Importance

3 of 5 · Long-run path of the main US equity index matters to savers and pensions nationwide.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 1 March 2017.

The 2000 peak (1,527) was about 2,124 in 2014 dollars; the S&P 500 passed that inflation-adjusted level around 2015 and clearly by 2017 (2,300-2,400+), within 6-8 years, not a generation. Window was inferred as decades, so the claim was falsified early.

Evidence:

• https://topforeignstocks.com/2014/09/30/on-the-impact-of-inflation-on-equity-returns/
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500