Jeremy Grantham

The US will enter a recession in 2023 that runs into 2024, with an accompanying decline in stock prices.

“we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and an accompanying decline in stock prices”

Said on

17 August 2023 · Bloomberg interview, quoted by Fortune

Source

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns of recession · Fortune

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

we will have

Categories

EconomyMarkets

Importance

3 of 5 · A US recession affects employment and markets nationally and globally.

Outcome

Inaccurate

NBER has identified no US recession since the 2020 COVID recession; US GDP grew through 2023-24 and the S&P 500 rose about 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500