Cathie Wood

The US Treasury yield curve will invert in 2019, without signalling a recession.

“The yield curve will invert, and one of the reasons is inflation is going to be much lower than expected”

Said on

4 December 2018 · CNBC "Closing Bell" interview; no window stated, inferred as the following year (2019), matching her "next year" economic call in the same interview.

Source

The economy will surprise to the high next year, predicts investment advisor · CNBC

Should come true

2019

How sure they sounded

will

Categories

MarketsEconomy

Importance

3 of 5 · A yield-curve inversion is a closely watched US recession signal.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 22 March 2019.

The 3-month/10-year Treasury spread inverted on March 22, 2019 and the 2-year/10-year spread inverted on August 14, 2019, within the inferred 2019 window. The only recession that followed was the 2020 pandemic one, which most economists do not attribute to the inversion.

Evidence:

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
• https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/2-year-and-10-year-treasury-yields-invert-for-first-time-since-2007.html