Elon Musk

The US economy will enter a recession in the near term (inferred window: by end of 2023).

Inaccurate ●●●●●
“As to whether there is a recession in the near term, that is more likely than not. It is not a certainty, but it appears more likely than not”
Said on
21 June 2022 · Qatar Economic Forum, conversation with Bloomberg's John Micklethwait. No window stated; "near term" inferred as about 18 months.
Source
Elon Musk thinks recession is 'more likely than not' in the near term · KATV (The National Desk)
Should come true
2023
How sure they sounded
more likely than not ... not a certainty
Categories
Economy
Importance
3 of 5 · A US recession call matters to the national economy and markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate

No US recession followed: GDP grew 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, and NBER declared no recession. Window inferred from "near term" as about 18 months (to end of 2023).

Evidence:

History
  • 2026-10-17 07:58:00 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-17 07:58:00 · categorized by claude
  • 2026-10-17 07:58:16 · scored by claude