Paul Krugman

Over the decade after 1994, East Asian economies will keep growing faster than the West, but more slowly than in the early 1990s.

“barring a catastrophic political upheaval, it is likely that growth in East Asia will continue to outpace growth in the West for the next decade and beyond. But it will not do so at the pace of recent years.”

Said on

1 November 1994 · Foreign Affairs essay "The Myth of Asia's Miracle" (November/December 1994), JSTOR scan hosted by Hanover College

Source

The Myth of Asia's Miracle · Foreign Affairs (via Hanover College)

Should come true

2000s

How sure they sounded

it is likely

Categories

EconomyGeopolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · The growth path of East Asia shaped the global economic balance and investment flows.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2004.

Despite the 1997-98 crisis, East Asian growth over 1995-2004 stayed well above that of the US and Western Europe (China around 9 percent a year, South Korea around 5 percent vs about 3 percent for the US), while the tigers grew noticeably more slowly than in the early 1990s. Both halves of the forecast held.

Evidence:

• https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=KR-CN-SG-US-EU
• https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/062300.htm