Predictions
Sort: newest · most important · target date
Pending ●●●●●
“I expect that in the second Trump administration, Trump and his team will get the job done.”
Said 30 Dec 2024 · Target: 20 Jan 2029
BankingPolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
“@realDonaldTrump is going to win in a landslide.”
Said 28 Jun 2024 · Target: 5 Nov 2024
ElectionsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“If by then, as I expect, Dean is polling substantially better than Biden against Trump, I predict that the party will choose Dean Phillips over Biden. The party will have no choice”
Said 13 Jan 2024 · Target: Aug 2024
ElectionsPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
“I would be very surprised if we don’t find ourselves in a world with persistent ~3% inflation”
Said 2 Aug 2023 · Target: by 2033
Economy
Pending ●●●●●
“The Fed cannot change its target now, but will likely do so in the future.”
Said 15 Dec 2022 · Target: by 2032
Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
“in order to stop the inflationary spiral, the Fed will need to rapidly raise rates to 4-5% by next year, which hopefully will be enough to snuff inflation.”
Said 4 Jul 2022 · Target: 2023
EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
“come the turn of the year, I think we are going to have meaningfully higher yields as people realize the economy is going to make a big recovery.”
Said 19 Jul 2021 · Target: Jan 2022
MarketsEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
“We are going to have an extremely strong economy coming in the fall”
Said 19 Jul 2021 · Target: Q4 2021
Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“I’d be surprised if it’s not gone within a year”
Said 12 Jan 2015 · Target: Jan 2016
Markets