US interest rates will rise from about 2.5% to the higher end of a 4.5%-6% range in this tightening cycle.
Accurate ●●●●●
“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range)”
- Said on
- 13 September 2022 · LinkedIn article after the August 2022 CPI report
- Source
- Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has a gloomy market prediction for what 4.5% interest rates would mean for stocks · Fortune (Bloomberg)
- Should come true
- by 2024
- How sure they sounded
- It looks like
- Categories
- EconomyBanking
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Call on the peak of the Fed's 2022-23 rate cycle.
Outcome
Accurate Happened 26 July 2023.
Inferred window: this tightening cycle (through 2024). The Fed raised its target range to 5.25-5.50% in July 2023 (effective rate about 5.33%), and the 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5% in October 2023, in the upper part of the 4.5-6% range. In the same post he guessed the Fed would be easier than that, but the stated rate call held.
History
- 2026-10-17 00:14:49 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:14:49 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:15:13 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:15:17 · scored by claude