A rise in US rates to about 4.5% will knock roughly 20% off US equity prices from September 2022 levels.
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices”
- Said on
- 13 September 2022 · LinkedIn article; attributed to the present value discount effect, plus about 10% more from declining incomes
- Source
- Ray Dalio: Fed to move to 4.5%, stocks to drop by 20% · Kitco News
- Should come true
- by 2023
- How sure they sounded
- I estimate
- Categories
- MarketsEconomy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Call on a major US stock market decline.
Outcome
Inaccurate
Rates passed 4.5% by early 2023, but the S&P 500 never fell 20% from its September 13, 2022 close (about 3,933). Its lowest close was 3,577 on October 12, 2022, about 9% lower, and it was higher than the September 2022 level through 2023. The call was framed as a valuation estimate, but the predicted drop did not happen.
History
- 2026-10-17 00:14:50 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:14:50 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:15:14 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:15:18 · scored by claude