Paul Krugman

By around 2005 it will be clear that the Internet's economic impact has been no greater than that of the fax machine.

“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”

Said on

10 June 1998 · Red Herring magazine essay "Why most economists' predictions are wrong", June 1998 issue; text verified by Quote Investigator from the archived original

Source

Quote Origin: It Will Become Clear That the Internet's Impact on the Economy Has Been No Greater Than the Fax Machine's · Quote Investigator

Should come true

2005

How sure they sounded

it will become clear (stated as fact; Krugman later said the piece was meant to be provocative)

Categories

TechnologyEconomy

Importance

4 of 5 · A forecast about the economic significance of the Internet, a technology that reshaped the global economy.

Outcome

Inaccurate

By 2005 the Internet had already transformed commerce, media and communications far beyond the fax machine's effect, and Internet use kept growing rapidly. Snopes rates the prediction as wildly inaccurate; Krugman later said the piece was meant to be provocative.

Evidence:

• https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-effect-economy/
• https://quoteinvestigator.com/2023/10/26/internet-fax/