Nate Silver

Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination (Silver put his chances at well under 20%).

“For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent.”

Said on

23 November 2015 · FiveThirtyEight article "Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls" (mirrored from his blog feed on Goodreads)

Source

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls · FiveThirtyEight (via Goodreads blog mirror)

Should come true

Jul 2016

How sure they sounded

for my money; (considerably) less than 20 percent

Categories

Elections

Importance

3 of 5 · Who wins a major-party presidential nomination matters to the whole country.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 19 July 2016.

Silver put Trump's nomination chances well under 20%, implying he would very likely not be the nominee. Trump clinched the delegates in May 2016 and was formally nominated at the RNC on July 19, 2016; Silver later wrote that FiveThirtyEight "basically got the Republican race wrong."

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
• https://money.cnn.com/2016/05/16/media/nate-silver-donald-trump/index.html