Statistician and election forecaster; founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletter
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“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026. Manifold puts a similar question at just 50%, which is well below the base rate — I expect turmoil in the GOP caucus, but it’s not apparent who the replacement would be. 60%”Politics
“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress. Alito and Thomas are old, and with political control rapidly flipping back and forth in recent years, they have every incentive to make a politically timed retirement. 85%”Politics
“Democrats win the presidency in 2028. In contrast to markets, which see this as a pure 50/50 proposition, I give just the slightest edge to Democrats.”Elections
“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms. Prediction markets put this at 70%, but I suspect there’s too much hedging toward 50/50 given the historical midterm penalty plus the narrowness of the current GOP majority. Plus, the Democratic voting bloc should still turn out in m…”Elections
“To be blunt, 59 percent is enough of an edge that if you offered to let me bet on Republicans at even money, I’d take it.”Elections
“Today, in our final forecast of the cycle, Republicans have a 59 percent chance of winning the Senate and an 84 percent chance of winning the House.”Elections
“our final forecast has Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump.”Elections
“(Republican odds of keeping the Senate are also just north of 80 percent in a nice bit of symmetry.)”Elections
“But an 86 percent chance (or around 6 in 7) — which is the chance that Democrats have of winning the House, give or take a bit in the various versions of the FiveThirtyEight forecast model — is nonetheless a pretty good chance.”Elections
“Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model.”Elections
“For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent.”Elections