Nate Silver

Hillary Clinton will win the November 8, 2016 US presidential election (71-72% in FiveThirtyEight's final forecast).

“Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model.”

Said on

8 November 2016 · FiveThirtyEight final 2016 forecast article (mirrored from his blog feed on Goodreads)

Source

Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton · FiveThirtyEight (via Goodreads blog mirror)

Should come true

8 Nov 2016

How sure they sounded

71 percent favorite

Categories

Elections

Importance

4 of 5 · US presidential election outcome with major global consequences.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 8 November 2016.

Silver's final forecast made Clinton a 71-72% favorite; Trump won the Electoral College 304-227 (Clinton won the popular vote). The forecast gave Trump a meaningful ~29% chance, but the favored outcome did not happen.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election