Nate Silver

Republicans will win control of the US House in the November 8, 2022 midterms (84%).

“Today, in our final forecast of the cycle, Republicans have a 59 percent chance of winning the Senate and an 84 percent chance of winning the House.”

Said on

8 November 2022 · FiveThirtyEight final 2022 midterm forecast article (mirrored on Goodreads)

Source

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started · FiveThirtyEight (via Goodreads blog mirror)

Should come true

8 Nov 2022

How sure they sounded

84 percent chance; Republicans are favored in the House

Categories

Elections

Importance

3 of 5 · Control of a chamber of Congress shapes US policy for two years.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 16 November 2022.

Republicans won the House in 2022 with a narrow 222-213 majority (control called Nov. 16, 2022), as Silver's 84% forecast favored.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections