Nate Silver

Democrats will win control of the US House in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (85%).

“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms. Prediction markets put this at 70%, but I suspect there’s too much hedging toward 50/50 given the historical midterm penalty plus the narrowness of the current GOP majority. Plus, the Democratic voting bloc should still turn out in midterms. 85%”

Said on

26 January 2025 · Silver Bulletin post "113 predictions for Trump's second term"

Source

113 predictions for Trump's second term · Silver Bulletin

Should come true

3 Nov 2026

How sure they sounded

85%

Categories

Elections

Importance

3 of 5 · House control determines whether Trump's second-term agenda faces a check.

Outcome

Not scored yet.