Nate Silver

At least one US Supreme Court seat will become vacant during the 119th or 120th Congress (by January 3, 2029) (85%).

“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress. Alito and Thomas are old, and with political control rapidly flipping back and forth in recent years, they have every incentive to make a politically timed retirement. 85%”

Said on

26 January 2025 · Silver Bulletin post "113 predictions for Trump's second term"

Source

113 predictions for Trump's second term · Silver Bulletin

Should come true

3 Jan 2029

How sure they sounded

85%

Categories

Politics

Importance

3 of 5 · A Supreme Court vacancy shifts US law for decades.

Outcome

Not scored yet.