Nate Silver

The Democratic candidate will win the November 2028 US presidential election (55%).

Pending ●●●●●
“Democrats win the presidency in 2028. In contrast to markets, which see this as a pure 50/50 proposition, I give just the slightest edge to Democrats.”
Said on
26 January 2025 · Silver Bulletin post "113 predictions for Trump's second term" (listed at 55%)
Source
113 predictions for Trump's second term · Silver Bulletin
Should come true
7 Nov 2028
How sure they sounded
just the slightest edge; 55%
Categories
Elections
Importance
4 of 5 · US presidential election outcome with major global consequences.

Outcome

Not scored yet.

History
  • 2026-10-17 05:43:19 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-17 05:43:19 · categorized by claude