Nate Silver

Mike Johnson will still be Speaker of the House on November 3, 2026 (60%).

“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026. Manifold puts a similar question at just 50%, which is well below the base rate — I expect turmoil in the GOP caucus, but it’s not apparent who the replacement would be. 60%”

Said on

26 January 2025 · Silver Bulletin post "113 predictions for Trump's second term"

Source

113 predictions for Trump's second term · Silver Bulletin

Should come true

3 Nov 2026

How sure they sounded

60%

Categories

Politics

Importance

2 of 5 · Leadership of one chamber; matters to Congress more than the country.

Outcome

Not scored yet.