Nate Silver

Democrats will win control of the US House in the November 6, 2018 midterms (about 86%).

“But an 86 percent chance (or around 6 in 7) — which is the chance that Democrats have of winning the House, give or take a bit in the various versions of the FiveThirtyEight forecast model — is nonetheless a pretty good chance.”

Said on

5 November 2018 · FiveThirtyEight final 2018 midterm forecast article (mirrored on Goodreads)

Source

Final Election Update: Democrats Aren't Certain To Take The House, But They're Pretty Clear Favorites · FiveThirtyEight (via Goodreads blog mirror)

Should come true

6 Nov 2018

How sure they sounded

86 percent chance; pretty clear favorites

Categories

Elections

Importance

3 of 5 · Control of a chamber of Congress shapes US policy for two years.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 6 November 2018.

Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterms, gaining 41 seats for a 235-199 majority, as Silver's ~86% forecast favored.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections