Nate Silver

Republicans will win control of the US Senate in the November 2022 midterms (59%).

“To be blunt, 59 percent is enough of an edge that if you offered to let me bet on Republicans at even money, I’d take it.”

Said on

8 November 2022 · FiveThirtyEight final 2022 midterm forecast article (mirrored on Goodreads); window runs to the Georgia runoff

Source

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started · FiveThirtyEight (via Goodreads blog mirror)

Should come true

6 Dec 2022

How sure they sounded

59 percent; enough of an edge ... I'd take it

Categories

Elections

Importance

3 of 5 · Senate control decides confirmations and legislation.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 6 December 2022.

Silver's final Deluxe forecast gave Republicans 59% to win the Senate and said he'd bet on them at even money. Democrats held the Senate (control secured Nov. 12; Warnock then won the Georgia runoff for 51-49).

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections