Nate Silver

Joe Biden will win the November 3, 2020 US presidential election (89% in FiveThirtyEight's final forecast).

“our final forecast has Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump.”

Said on

3 November 2020 · FiveThirtyEight final 2020 presidential forecast article (mirrored on Goodreads)

Source

Biden's Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It's A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter · FiveThirtyEight (via Goodreads blog mirror)

Should come true

3 Nov 2020

How sure they sounded

89 percent chance; Biden's favored

Categories

Elections

Importance

4 of 5 · US presidential election outcome with major global consequences.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 3 November 2020.

Biden won the 2020 election 306-232 in the Electoral College, as Silver's 89% forecast favored, though the margins in key states were closer than the polls implied.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election