China will not launch a military attack on Taiwan in the run-up to the Beijing Winter Olympics and Xi Jinping's third-term bid (through end of October 2022).
Accurate ●●●●●
“A military attack on Taiwan could weaken China's standing if it fails. Xi's not likely to go there.”
- Said on
- 6 May 2021 · GZERO Media 'The Red Pen' video rebutting The Economist's 'most dangerous place on Earth' cover; window inferred from his cited reasons (Feb 2022 Winter Olympics, Xi's third term 'next fall')
- Source
- Would China really invade Taiwan? · GZERO Media
- Should come true
- Oct 2022
- How sure they sounded
- not likely; that's precisely why it's not going to happen
- Categories
- Geopolitics
- Importance
- 4 of 5 · A Chinese attack on Taiwan would risk a US-China war with global consequences.
Outcome
Accurate Happened 23 October 2022.
China did not attack Taiwan through the Feb 2022 Winter Olympics or Xi's securing of a third term at the 20th Party Congress (Oct 2022); it staged large drills after Pelosi's Aug 2022 visit but no military attack. Window inferred from the reasons Bremmer gave.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chinese_military_exercises_around_Taiwan
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_National_Congress_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party
History
- 2026-10-17 05:52:53 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 05:52:53 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 05:54:19 · scored by claude