Political scientist; founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
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“We don't know yet whether the Ukrainians are going to accept these limited 30-day terms. I expect they will, because Trump wants them to.”Geopolitics
“We view Trump as the very narrow favorite in this race, but this is a low-conviction view”ElectionsPolitics
“One day, China may invade Taiwan, triggering a war with global implications. But that day isn’t soon.”Geopolitics
“And so, the outcome is likely to be that Putin's going to escalate. An escalation means that the war is increasingly going to hit NATO, asymmetric attacks, cyber, fiber, pipeline, disinformation, espionage.”Geopolitics
“This is I think a war for the duration for a much longer period of time.”Geopolitics
“Maybe not years, but definitely a year. I think until the Chinese government is able to get their elderly population near fully vaccinated, they're not close to that yet, and or get therapeutics that work at scale, they need zero-COVID.”HealthEconomyPolitics
“And I think that is true because the Russian economy is going to be permanently in a state of free fall.”EconomyGeopolitics
“we continue to see a move towards oil embargo being discussed now by the French, after the elections, by the Germans as well. By the end of this year, you kind of expect to see that.”GeopoliticsEnergy
“Then you have the fact that the Finns and the Swedes are now saying that they will go to apply NATO together in May. That will get approved by the end of June at the Madrid summit.”Geopolitics
“A military attack on Taiwan could weaken China's standing if it fails. Xi's not likely to go there.”Geopolitics
“I mean, Trump is going to say he wins almost irrespective of what happens”ElectionsPolitics