Ian Bremmer

China will not invade Taiwan soon (within about two years of April 2023).

“One day, China may invade Taiwan, triggering a war with global implications. But that day isn’t soon.”

Said on

13 April 2023 · Bremmer's TIME column after China's drills following the Tsai-McCarthy meeting; 'soon' read as about two years

Source

Why China Won't Invade Taiwan Anytime Soon · TIME

Should come true

by 2025

How sure they sounded

that day isn't soon; China is unlikely to move against Taiwan soon

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a war with global implications.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 13 April 2025.

'Soon' scored as about two years (to April 2025). China held large exercises around Taiwan (Joint Sword-2024A, Strait Thunder-2025A) but did not invade.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Sword-2024A
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_Thunder-2025A