James Hansen

The Arctic Ocean will soon (within about 2 years of June 2008) be ice-free in late summer.

“As a result, without any additional greenhouse gases, the Arctic soon will be ice-free in the summer.”

Said on

23 June 2008 · "Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near", Hansen's briefing on the 20th anniversary of his 1988 testimony, Washington, 23 June 2008. "Soon" given no date; window inferred as about 2 years per site rules.

Source

Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near · Columbia University (James Hansen)

Should come true

by 2010

How sure they sounded

will (soon)

Categories

Climate

Importance

4 of 5 · An ice-free Arctic summer would be a major global climate tipping point.

Outcome

Inaccurate

"Soon" was given no date, so the window is about 2 years (to mid-2010), per site rules. The Arctic has not been ice-free (under 1 million km²) in any summer since then: the record low was about 3.4 million km² in 2012, and the 2025 minimum was 4.60 million km² (NSIDC). Even on a 10-year reading it did not happen.

Evidence:

• https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses
• https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5583
• https://cires.colorado.edu/news/arctic-sea-ice-has-reached-minimum-extent-2025