James Hansen

Global warming will reach +2°C above pre-industrial during the 2030s (by end of 2039).

“We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.”

Said on

6 February 2026 · Abstract of Hansen, Kharecha, Morgan and Vest, "Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It?", 6 February 2026. Tighter, later version of his 2023/2025 forecasts (2°C before 2050 / by 2045).

Source

Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It? · Columbia University (James Hansen mailings)

Should come true

2030s

How sure they sounded

is likely

Categories

Climate

Importance

4 of 5 · Reaching 2°C in the 2030s would breach the Paris upper limit decades earlier than mainstream assessments expect.

Outcome

Not scored yet.