Mohamed El-Erian

After the Brexit vote, the Bank of England will cut rates and the ECB and Bank of Japan will add more monetary stimulus/QE in 2016.

“I expect the Bank of England to cut rates and I expect the ECB to do more QE, as will the Bank of Japan.”

Said on

7 July 2016 · Telephone interview with Reuters after the Brexit referendum, republished by Fortune

Source

Pimco Ex-CEO Says U.K. Must Get Act Together or Pound Could Drop to $1 · Fortune (Reuters)

Should come true

by 2016

How sure they sounded

I expect

Categories

EconomyBanking

Importance

3 of 5 · Post-Brexit central-bank easing across three major economies.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 8 December 2016.

Inferred window: rest of 2016. The Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and expanded QE on August 4, 2016; the Bank of Japan expanded ETF purchases in July 2016; and on December 8, 2016 the ECB extended its asset purchases to December 2017 (at a lower monthly pace from April 2017), i.e. more QE.

Evidence:

• https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2016/august-2016
• https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2016/html/pr161208.en.html