The UK will fall into recession following the September 2022 mini-budget turmoil.
Partly right ●●●●●
“Yes, [a recession] is now inevitable. The question is depth and duration”
- Said on
- 28 September 2022 · Comment to Fortune after the Truss government's mini-budget and the gilt-market selloff
- Source
- A U.K. recession is now 'inevitable' and the only question is its 'depth and duration,' top economist Mohamed El-Erian says · Fortune
- Should come true
- by 2024
- How sure they sounded
- inevitable
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · A UK recession matters to a major national economy.
Outcome
Partly right Happened 31 December 2023.
Inferred window: about two years. The UK avoided recession in late 2022/early 2023 when the call implied one was imminent, but did enter a shallow technical recession in H2 2023 (GDP -0.1% in Q3 and -0.3% in Q4 2023, confirmed by ONS revisions). Because it came later and was very mild, partial is the cautious score.
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/octobertodecember2023
- https://investmentweek.co.uk/news/4190710/revised-gdp-figures-confirm-uk-economy-fell-recession-last
History
- 2026-10-17 05:59:50 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 05:59:50 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 06:00:18 · updated by claude
- 2026-10-17 06:00:31 · scored by claude