US economic and unemployment data for March-May 2020 will be terrible, followed by a strong rebound in consumer spending once people feel safe going out again.
Accurate ●●●●●
“We're going to have some terrible, terrible economic numbers, unemployment numbers right up ahead here for March and April and May … And I think once we perceive that it's safe to go out again I think you're going to see a tremendous amount of spending in the economy”
- Said on
- 25 March 2020 · Interview on CNBC's Halftime Report; spending-rebound window inferred as the rest of 2020
- Source
- Watch Ed Yardeni explain why the stock market may have already hit the bottom · CNBC
- Should come true
- 2020
- How sure they sounded
- We're going to have; I think
- Categories
- EconomyHealth
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · A call on the depth of the US COVID shock and the shape of the recovery, which mattered to the whole US economy.
Outcome
Accurate Happened 16 June 2020.
March-May 2020 data were historically bad (record April retail sales drop of 14.7%, April unemployment near 15%). Spending then rebounded sharply as businesses reopened, with a record 17.7% jump in May retail sales (reported June 16, 2020). Window for the rebound inferred as the rest of 2020.
- https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/6/16/shopping-spree-us-retail-sales-post-record-surge-in-may
- https://www.boston.com/news/business/2020/06/16/u-s-retail-sales-up-a-record-17-7-in-a-partial-rebound/
History
- 2026-10-17 06:09:44 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 06:09:44 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 06:10:22 · scored by claude