John Mearsheimer

Ukraine will keep the Soviet nuclear arsenal on its territory rather than giving it up.

“Ukraine is likely to keep its nuclear weapons, regardless of what other states say and do.”

Said on

1 June 1993 · Foreign Affairs essay, Summer 1993 issue (PDF on author's site)

Source

The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent · Foreign Affairs

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

likely

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · Fate of the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal and European security after the Soviet collapse.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 1 June 1996.

Ukraine joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state and signed the Budapest Memorandum in December 1994; the last warheads were transferred to Russia by June 1996. The prediction was settled within three years.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction