University of Chicago political scientist; offensive-realism theorist and author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
AcademicCommentatorSort: newest · most important · target date
“I argued that I think Ukraine will collapse on the battlefield in the near future, given the balance of forces, the casualty-exchange ratio, and the dwindling material support for Ukraine from the West.”Geopolitics
“Russia will ultimately win the war, although it will not decisively defeat Ukraine.”Geopolitics
“In sum, there is hardly any chance the Ukraine war will end with a meaningful peace settlement. The war is instead likely to drag on for at least another year”Geopolitics
“They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process”Geopolitics
“Now, Australians should be worried about China's rise, because it is likely to lead to intense security competition between China and the US, with considerable potential for war.”Geopolitics
“Neither the Palestinians nor any of Israel's immediate neighbors are powerful enough to deter it, and the lobby will remain influential enough over the next decade to protect Israel from meaningful U.S. pressure.”GeopoliticsPolitics
“Of course, President Obama will never do such a thing. Instead, he will increase the American commitment to Afghanistan, just as Lyndon Johnson did in Vietnam in 1965.”GeopoliticsPolitics
“Nor is the Northern Alliance likely to deliver victory.”Geopolitics
“The deal arranged by Richard Holbrooke is likely to fail sooner rather than later.”Geopolitics
“All these factors combine to make it likely that other states will follow in India's footsteps.”Geopolitics
“Ukraine is likely to keep its nuclear weapons, regardless of what other states say and do.”Geopolitics