John Mearsheimer

The Northern Alliance, even with US air support, will not defeat the Taliban in the 2001 Afghan war.

“Nor is the Northern Alliance likely to deliver victory.”

Said on

4 November 2001 · New York Times op-ed (PDF on author's site)

Source

Guns Won't Win the Afghan War · The New York Times

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

likely

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · Course of the US war in Afghanistan after 9/11.

Outcome

Inaccurate

With US air power and special forces, the Northern Alliance took Mazar-i-Sharif on 9 November and Kabul on 13 November 2001, and the Taliban regime collapsed by December. The Taliban's 2021 return came two decades later and does not rescue the near-term claim. Inferred window: the 2001-02 campaign.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_Kabul_(2001)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Afghanistan