Russia will win the Ukraine war, annexing a large swath of territory and leaving Ukraine a dysfunctional rump state, without conquering all of it.

Pending ●●●●●

“Russia will ultimately win the war, although it will not decisively defeat Ukraine.”

Said on: 23 June 2023 · Essay on his Substack. No window stated; long-run claim ("ultimately"), so the window is inferred as about 10 years (to mid-2033).
Source: The Darkness Ahead: Where the Ukraine War Is Headed · Substack (John Mearsheimer)
Should come true: 2030s
How sure they sounded: will
Categories: Geopolitics
Importance: 4 of 5 · Outcome of the largest war in Europe since 1945.

Outcome

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History