John Mearsheimer

If the West keeps pulling Ukraine toward NATO/the West, hostility with Russia will deepen and Ukraine will be devastated.

“They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process”

Said on

18 August 2014 · Foreign Affairs essay, September/October 2014 issue (PDF on author's site)

Source

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault · Foreign Affairs

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

will

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · Largest war in Europe since 1945.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 24 February 2022.

The West kept its policy (NATO open door, arming and training Ukraine), relations with Russia worsened, and Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion devastated Ukraine. The forecast was conditional, but its condition (continuing the policy) held. Inferred window: about 10 years.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine