John Mearsheimer

After India's May 1998 nuclear tests, other states (e.g. Pakistan) will also go nuclear.

“All these factors combine to make it likely that other states will follow in India's footsteps.”

Said on

17 May 1998 · New York Times op-ed (PDF on author's site)

Source

Here We Go Again · The New York Times

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

likely

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · Nuclear proliferation in South Asia and beyond.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 28 May 1998.

Pakistan carried out its Chagai-I nuclear tests on 28 May 1998, eleven days after the op-ed; North Korea later tested in 2006. Inferred window: the following decade.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chagai-I