John Mearsheimer

Ukraine's army will collapse on the battlefield in the near future (inferred window: by early 2028).

“I argued that I think Ukraine will collapse on the battlefield in the near future, given the balance of forces, the casualty-exchange ratio, and the dwindling material support for Ukraine from the West.”

Said on

30 January 2026 · Discussion with Glenn Diesen, summarized in his own words on his Substack

Source

How Will the Ukraine War End? · Substack (John Mearsheimer)

Should come true

2028

How sure they sounded

I think

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · Outcome of the largest war in Europe since 1945.

Outcome

Not scored yet.