John Mearsheimer

China's continued rise will lead to intense US-China security competition (within about two decades of 2010).

“Now, Australians should be worried about China's rise, because it is likely to lead to intense security competition between China and the US, with considerable potential for war.”

Said on

4 August 2010 · Hintze Lecture, University of Sydney (4 Aug 2010); extract published in The Spectator Australia, 2 Oct 2010 (PDF on author's site)

Source

Australians should fear the rise of China · The Spectator Australia

Should come true

2030s

How sure they sounded

likely

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

5 of 5 · Great-power rivalry between the world's two largest powers.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 15 September 2021.

US-China relations shifted to open strategic rivalry: the 2018 trade war, sweeping tech and chip export controls, and AUKUS (Sept 2021), which aligned Australia with the US against China as he also forecast. This came true before the inferred 2030 window closed. The "potential for war" part was hedged and is not scored.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war