Janet Yellen

The US economy will achieve a soft landing in 2024, bringing inflation down without a recession.

“My baseline is that we'll achieve a soft landing.”

Said on

13 December 2023 · CNBC Squawk on the Street interview with Sara Eisen, as Treasury Secretary, asked how likely the soft landing continues into 2024

Source

CNBC Transcript: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Speaks with CNBC's Sara Eisen on Squawk on the Street · CNBC

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

My baseline is; as a baseline with solid probability

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · A US recession or soft landing matters to the national and global economy.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2024.

The US avoided recession in 2024: real GDP grew 2.8% for the year and unemployment stayed near 4%, while inflation kept easing (PCE 2.6% in December). That matches the widely described soft landing.

Evidence:

• https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2024-advance-estimate