The US economy will not fall into recession in 2019 (he put the odds of a sustained decline at about 1-2%).
Accurate ●●●●●
“maybe like one percent or two percent or something like that”
- Said on
- 19 February 2019 · CNBC interview as CEA chairman, reported by AFP; the odds he gave were for a sustained decline in the economy in 2019.
- Source
- US economy to see another strong year, recession unlikely · Daily Tribune (Bahrain), via AFP
- Should come true
- 2019
- How sure they sounded
- odds very low, maybe like one percent or two percent
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · Call on whether the US economy would enter recession, made when the NY Fed model put the odds near 24%.
Outcome
Accurate
No recession occurred in 2019. NBER dates the business-cycle peak to February 2020, with the recession caused by the COVID-19 shock, and BEA reported real GDP growth of 2.3% for 2019.
- https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
- https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-advance-estimate
History
- 2026-10-17 07:00:20 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 07:00:20 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 07:00:23 · scored by claude