Gary Marcus

The generative-AI financial bubble will collapse before the end of 2024.

“I will tell you why the collapse of the generative AI bubble – in a financial sense – appears imminent, likely before the end of the calendar year.”

Said on

3 August 2024 · Substack post quoting his draft WIRED essay; he said the collapse would come sooner than the 2025 he first wrote

Source

Why the collapse of the Generative AI bubble may be imminent · Marcus on AI (Substack)

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

"appears imminent, likely"; "It's going to be days or weeks from now, not months"

Categories

AIMarkets

Importance

3 of 5 · A collapse in AI valuations would matter to the tech industry and financial markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate

No collapse came in 2024. In October 2024 OpenAI raised $6.6B at a $157B valuation, nearly double its valuation earlier that year, and AI valuations kept rising into 2025. Marcus himself later said he was "flat out wrong about investors".

Evidence:

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/openai-has-closed-new-funding-round-raising-over-6-5-billion
• https://w.media/openai-raises-6-6-billion-valuation-soars-to-157-billion/
• https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus